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Next Recession by 2018, Experts Say!January 12, 2015
Property markets could face next economic recession by 2017 or 2018
Until then, let the good times roll.
By Paige Steers | Paige.Steers@am.jll.com | @PaigeSteers
Ben Breslau (@benbreslau) is no stranger to making economic predictions. As the head of Americas Research for global brokerage company JLL, prognostication fits his purpose. He’s comfortable telling wide audiences economic realities they may not want to hear. Yet, his Q4 economic update caught most of his audiences by surprise as it contained the ultimate commercial real estate curse word: recession.
We caught up with Ben for an insider’s view into the economic realities that institutional investors bank on.
All of the property sectors are showing a leasing momentum. Is this a case of what goes up will come down?
You’re right on both parts; we are seeing leasing momentum in all property sectors and in most markets around the world. The global office vacancy rate (across 98 markets) has dropped below the 13 percent threshold for the first time in the current cycle, fueling modest but fairly widespread rent growth. Mounting supply shortages have prompted another rise in construction activity and, globally, new deliveries are anticipated to be around 25 percent higher in 2015 compared to 2014, with prospects of even larger construction volumes in 2016 to provide tenants with some needed options.